what are the odds....

[Gippo]

I basically live at the pudding camp. been soloing them forever.... however, tonight this happens.

http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/28/resistvk5.jpg

no one died, but how often do you ppl ever see this? First time for me in hundreds of cases.

[Fridell]

Never seen a Pudding resist my Stun o.o

[Kaeko]

About 60 merits and 60 levels of leeching EXP at that camp. Never seen it.

[Vlorsutes]

Well, I'm not 100% certain but I believe that, like melee accuracy, magic accuracy has a cap of 95%, which would explain why you've never seen it before now.

[Tubbers]

Well, I'm not 100% certain but I believe that, like melee accuracy, magic accuracy has a cap of 95%, which would explain why you've never seen it before now.

That would make Kaeko the luckiest person on the planet. Assuming something like 300 exp per pudding, 60 merits is 2000 puddings. I cast stun about once every two fights on puddings while soloing them, maybe a little more, so we'll call that 1000 stuns. If the cap really is 95% then there is a .95^1000 chance that he wouldn't see a stun resist. That's ~=5.29x10^-23.

For the record I've never seen this either.

[Nevex]

I think magic accuracy caps at certain percentage tiers depending on a combination of the spell's base accuracy (everyone can tell that spells such as Dispel and Flash have a much better landing rate than others say Sleep and Bind), target's resistance to a certain element/status, skill and magic accuracy gained from gear and merits. Day and Weather might affect this hypotetical cap as well.

For example I do Red Verus Blue assault a lot with a BLM, SCH and "leecher" setup.
As SCH I have yet to see a Manifestation Bind/Gravity to be resisted on a even a single one out of 5-10 BLU NPCs.
If we assume that magic accuracy caps at 95% then the odds of being resisted after a large number of casts would be pretty high.

Likewise it is possible, although very rare, to have a nuke resisted by Wild Rabbit outside San d'Oria, while I've never seen a Stun being resisted by them.
My Flash as PLD75 even got resisted by some too weak beetle once, and that usually doesn't happen even after a very large number of casts on a low level target.

Although completely untested and unproven it's just logical at this point to think that in different scenarios, a spell hits different accuracy caps.
The whole 95% thing comes from the most common spellcasting situations (as well as from a direct comparison to melee accuracy) and this percentage is definitely not true against most HNMs. So why wouldn't higher % caps be possible?

Maybe Stun has a very low chance (like, 1/512 or something? *This numeric value is just thrown there as example*) to be resisted by those puddings, hence why it usually "never" happens.

[Not Kuno]

Was it earth day + earth weather or something?

[Vlorsutes]

I think magic accuracy caps at certain percentage tiers depending on a combination of the spell's base accuracy (everyone can tell that spells such as Dispel and Flash have a much better landing rate than others say Sleep and Bind), target's resistance to a certain element/status, skill and magic accuracy gained from gear and merits. Day and Weather might affect this hypotetical cap as well.

For example I do Red Verus Blue assault a lot with a BLM, SCH and "leecher" setup.
As SCH I have yet to see a Manifestation Bind/Gravity to be resisted on a even a single one out of 5-10 BLU NPCs.
If we assume that magic accuracy caps at 95% then the odds of being resisted after a large number of casts would be pretty high.

Likewise it is possible, although very rare, to have a nuke resisted by Wild Rabbit outside San d'Oria, while I've never seen a Stun being resisted by them.
My Flash as PLD75 even got resisted by some too weak beetle once, and that usually doesn't happen even after a very large number of casts on a low level target.

Although completely untested and unproven it's just logical at this point to think that in different scenarios, a spell hits different accuracy caps.
The whole 95% thing comes from the most common spellcasting situations (as well as from a direct comparison to melee accuracy) and this percentage is definitely not true against most HNMs. So why wouldn't higher % caps be possible?

Maybe Stun has a very low chance (like, 1/512 or something? *This numeric value is just thrown there as example*) to be resisted by those puddings, hence why it usually "never" happens.

There's always that possibility, since it wouldn't be the first time that the mechanics of an aspect of the game don't fit the standard.

[drwaffles]

I don't think I've ever had a Stun resisted on a Pudding in all the time I've spent there solo, but I know that extremely rarely Stun can resist on absolutely anything (even level 1 mobs). I'm convinced it's a 1% or less chance, or you'd surely see it at least once every couple of weeks or so if accuracy capped at 95%. However, whilst I haven't seen Stun resist on a Pudding I have once had my ES nuke half-resisted which was even fucking weirder to me.

[Wizerd]

I'm convinced that there's a 95% cap on each tier. That is to say, a full land of a spell is capped at 95%. Then, of the 5% that don't land full, 95% of those will be half resists, and the other 5% will drop to the tier below it. 95% of those will be quarter hits, and the remaining 5% of that will be full resists ( 1/8 ).

This would basically give a chance of about 1/8000 for a full resist on a mob that you're completely capped on. That sound about right?

[drwaffles]

I suppose, and since Puddings do have slightly above-average resist rates (for Elemental Magic and Enfeebling Magic at least) by virtue of being high level mobs and having high INT then the chances of encountering a freak resist such as the one in the OP would be less astronomically low than they would be otherwise.

[Delekii]

I don't think I've ever had a Stun resisted on a Pudding in all the time I've spent there solo, but I know that extremely rarely Stun can resist on absolutely anything (even level 1 mobs). I'm convinced it's a 1% or less chance, or you'd surely see it at least once every couple of weeks or so if accuracy capped at 95%. However, whilst I haven't seen Stun resist on a Pudding I have once had my ES nuke half-resisted which was even fucking weirder to me.

If stun accuracy capped at 95% you would see it all the damn time. 1/20 is very often, especially on things like hnms where a missed stun is extremely noticable...

[Suiram]

I'm convinced that there's a 95% cap on each tier. That is to say, a full land of a spell is capped at 95%. Then, of the 5% that don't land full, 95% of those will be half resists, and the other 5% will drop to the tier below it. 95% of those will be quarter hits, and the remaining 5% of that will be full resists ( 1/8 ).

This would basically give a chance of about 1/8000 for a full resist on a mob that you're completely capped on. That sound about right?

Is this based on the Macc tests you did recently, or just what you've surmised from years of playing? If it's from the Macc tests I won't dispute it, but from what I've observed (just in years as a BLM, not formal testing) is that it seems to be tiered in such a way as to disallow certain resist values with sufficient Macc. For instance, I don't believe it's possible, even 1 in 8000 times to see a 1/8 nuke on a Lv0 bee as a normally-geared 75 BLM. In fact, I'm not certain I've ever seen a 1/4 resist on them. Likewise, it seems impossible (I didn't believe this at first but have tried it out a few times since Kaylia mentioned) to have any resist whatsoever on Lv0 mobs using ES (again at 75), and yet resisted ES nuke is possible on higher-level mobs, as I have seen myself, and which drwaffles mentions seeing as well a few posts up.

What I'm proposing is this: Stun being inherently more accurate than most other spells, it is typically impossible to resist fully (probably the equivalent of a 1/8 resist where 1/4 and 1/2 is the chance of wearing quickly?) since you've broken the tier on most mobs making that full resist impossible, but due to a confluence of factors, probably earthday and/or earth weather, maybe didn't have any dark magic gear or macc gear on, made the Macc value low enough so as to allow for a full resist, and then just rolled on the unlucky 5% chance.

[Judai]

I'm convinced that there's a 95% cap on each tier. That is to say, a full land of a spell is capped at 95%. Then, of the 5% that don't land full, 95% of those will be half resists, and the other 5% will drop to the tier below it. 95% of those will be quarter hits, and the remaining 5% of that will be full resists ( 1/8 ).

This would basically give a chance of about 1/8000 for a full resist on a mob that you're completely capped on. That sound about right?

This sounds right to me. I have never seen a stun Full Resist on a Pudding but it's pretty easy to notice different variations on Stun duration. Sometimes the mob is stunned a good couple seconds, sometimes it's just a fraction of a second, which to me shows varying resists. Sure, it could be lag or slow info transfer or w/e but it makes sense to be a resist imo.

[Wizerd]

Is this based on the Macc tests you did recently, or just what you've surmised from years of playing?

The latter; it's mostly just my theory. I do like yours, but I don't believe any resist is impossible. The amount of tests it would take to comfortably say you can't get a full resist would be far too high for anyone to test by themselves. However, I have had a full resist on Sleep on a lv0 worm once, while casting a rotation of 10 enfeebles, over about 120 casts. This was from a lv75 decently geared RDM.

I tried to find my screenshot of it, but it appears I didn't take one. :/

[solsovly]

I've never seen stun resisted on puddings either or any BLM XP mob.

I'd imagine it is along the same lines of this

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v2...nseYouFail.jpg

[Tubbers]

This would basically give a chance of about 1/8000 for a full resist on a mob that you're completely capped on. That sound about right?

That does sound about right. Gives Kaeko roughly an 88% chance to never see a stun resist after 60 merits, and probably a few stun resists for all the BLM who've posted in the thread (or Solso's Charm resist). Doesn't account for Elphaba though.

[Omniyoji]

Whenever I see something like this happen I just say to myself, "Hmmm, this one must've eaten his Wheaties this morning..."

I've seen those damn lv 1 bunnies resist my blizzaga III before. I was so depressed that day...

[Drex]

I've had some very short stuns, but I have never seen a pudding flat out resist it except once, when I stunned it at the exact same time that its body disappeared during a despawn.

[Ultimax]

I've had it happen twice in easily a few thousand puddings. The majority of my merits are from soloing those things.